NPP will secure 53% votes if elections are held today -Legon polls

The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) will garner 52.7% of the total votes cast while the opposition NDC will obtain 33.1% if elections were to be held today, a research conducted by the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana, Legon has revealed.

The research which covered a sample of 5000 respondents across the country indicated that the Progressive Peoples Party (PPP), Convention Peoples Party (CPP), Peoples National Convention (PNC) and National Democratic Party (NDP) will obtain 2.1%, 1.1%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

“Interestingly, among this same group, 56% voted for the NPP in 2016 meaning the NPP has lost some support among those who voted for them in the last election. For the NDC, also reduced by about 1 percentage point. This is a clear indication that the governing party, NPP, has lost some grounds among its base and certainly independent voters who voted for them in 2016,” the report said.

Key issues that informed the choice of who or which party to vote for, by the respondents were the economy, jobs, education, health care, and perception of corruption.

On government policies such as the implementation of the Free SHS, a whopping 85.4% declared support for Free SHS.

Indeed, 77.6% of respondents said the timing of the introduction of the FSHS is good.

BELOW IS THE FINDINGS OF THE RESEARCH

Democratic Governance in Ghana: What the Voters’ Say about the NPP Government

FINDINGS

Voters assessed the government on several key governance indicators

• Government policies (Novel policy initiatives)

Citizens expect their governments to pursue policies that have the capacity to transform their livelihoods. Hence they view a successful government as one that initiates transformative policies.

There seems to be a relatively high popular endorsement/support for the government’s innovative policies.

These policies include the:

• Fee Senior High School

• Fight against Galamsey/illegal mining,

• Restoration of teachers/Nurses Allowance

• IDIF,

• Revival of NHIS

• Planting for food and job

The most popular policy

Of the policies the government has rolled out, voters regard the Free Senior High School project as most significant, followed by the fight against Galamsey/illegal mining, restoration of teachers/Nurses Allowance and IDIF, revival of NHIS and planting for food and job.

Despite implementation challenges, a whopping 85.4% declared support for Free SHS. Indeed, 77.6% of respondents said the timing of the introduction of the FSHS is good.

Creation of The Office of Special Prosecutor

One policy the voters applauded government is the creation of the office of Special Prosecutor.Overall, 64% backed the government for the creation of the office of the public prosecutor.

Consequently, the voters credited the NPP government for establishing the Office

However, they were divided over many aspects of its operation. In particular, voters expressed mixed feelings about the character of the Office. For instance, less than half 48.8 % said the Office is not established to hunt down the enemies of the NPP. But the 26.4% that were indifferent, and the 21.6% that regard it as a witch hunting effort, leave room for conjectures.

Similarly there was no unity in the opinions of voters on whether the Office would be impartial.

No clear majority opinion was expressed on its ability to remain impartial.

Do you think the public prosecutor will be impartial and can investigate corrupt incumbent public officials?

Thus, citizens are not too certain about whether the office can be bold to fight corruption even though some think the presence of the Office will scare fraudsters from engaging in corrupt practices.

Nevertheless, the voters did not think that the Office would serve the interest of the government rather they firmly believe that it will benefit the country and society as a whole. This is because the majority of respondents believe that once appointed the person will exude courage and assert its independence.

The decision to create new regions

One of the bold initiatives taken by the NPP government relates to the decision to create new regions.

Populate discourse in the media has not given us the real picture. In this study, respondents expressed clear positions on the subject. A majority (64.6%), even though not overwhelming, vouched their approval for the intention to create the new regions.

Voters who support the government’s decision to create new regions expressed varying reasons in defence of their position.

THE CONSEQUENCES OF THESE POLICIES on POPULARITY OF GOVERNMENT

• Relatively minimal approval rate for the government. Those who rated the government above the median mark (5) constituted 62.1%. However, a B+ rating (6 upwards) gives voters’ score for the government as 49.4%.

2. The median approval rate for the government reflects its support-base among the current voting population. For instance, when voters were asked the most critical question.

KEY CHALLENGES FACING THE GOVERNMENT

Voters’ perception about governments’ performance is not only shaped by novel policies but also the impact of these on their livelihoods. In other words, voters will always examine their living conditions when assessing incumbents whether during election or non-election years.

The most critical of all were:

• The economy

It is often said that the economy of a country wields an invisible foot in the determination of voters’ primary decisions. Not surprisingly, the voters demonstrated by their response that the economy lies at the heart of the judgment of the government’s performance. While the voters were divided in their opinion regarding improvement in the economy, it is not a good omen to the government’s management of the economy. This is because only 44.9% said improvement has occurred in the economy over the past one year while 42.6% discounted any claim of any improvement in the economy.

• Unemployment

Undoubtedly employment creation is one of the most salient but thorny developmental concerns dominating public discourses. The large number of unemployed people in the country continues to influence popular thinking about how well or not the government has performed. No clear majority is recorded for government’s effort to change the unemployment situation in the country. Indeed, only a handful of respondents indicated that the sector is improving (32%) while 35% said the situation remains unchanged. Only 9% of respondents indicated that there were new opportunities emerging in the economy.

• Living Conditions (Cost of Living)

A large number of respondents said living conditions have not changed significantly from last year. More than a quarter of the respondents said living conditions have not changed from last year, whiles about 20% said living conditions are bad.

Voters’ Optimism about future prospects of progress

Notwithstanding the apprehensions expressed by some voters, there seems to be a general optimism that the government will surmount the challenges.

A considerable number of voters indicated that the government has demonstrated capacity to solve the problems. Hence, they said they believe in the government’s capacity to deliver on its campaign promises.

PERFORMANCE OF THE OPPOSITION/POLITICAL PARTIES DURING THE PERIOD

Going into 2020 respondents were asked about their party choice, The NPP led by 52% and the NDC was a distant second at 33.1%. Interestingly, among this same group, 56% voted for the NPP IN 2016 meaning the NPP has lost some support among those who voted for them in the last election.

For the NDC, also reduced by about 1 percentage point. This is a clear indication that the governing party, NPP, has lost some grounds among its base and certainly independent voters who voted for them in 2016.

One would have expected the NDC to make some significant gains but the evidence available suggests otherwise. It would be important for the government to pursue its agenda of one district one factory and other employment opportunities to continue to gain the traction of the Ghanaian people.

On the issues that determine the choice of who or which party to vote for, respondents indicated the following –see the slide economy and jobs, education, health care, perception of corruption,

Finally the studied sought to find out who the voters wanted to lead the NDC in 2020.

58% of them indicated former president Mahama. This means that Ghanaians are likely to see perhaps the final bout between Nana Akufo-Addo and Mr. John Mahama. And this will be the first time two people who have been presidents before will lead one of the major parties in Ghana’s elections.

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